Down and Out In Las Vegas
November 20, 2008
As most (if not all) of you have already heard, third quarter tourism numbers are out, and they are not great. Not cataclysmic, but still somewhat disappointing.
Las Vegas Recession
These numbers more or less underscore the point of the Penthouse article in which I hypothesize that Las Vegas as a destination is becoming less relevant.
Yes, the economy is bad everywhere, but Vegas was often thought to be “recession-proof”.
Myself and my readers have often noted inconsistencies in the LVCVA’s (Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority) numbers when they come out. It usually seems that, if anything, they are optimistic.
Remember, the LVCVA promotes tourism. It’s their job to polish the turd and put lipstick on the pig. They do their job well.
Rest assured, however, that our local situation is almost certainly worse than the numbers let on. Our unemployment rate is over 7%, which is currently tied for the 5th worse in the nation … and is climbing.
We are #1 in the nation for home foreclosures.
As a matter of fact, in September of 2008 alone … one in every 82 homes in Las Vegas received a foreclosure notice. We have been at the head of the foreclosure list for 21 straight months.
And we don’t just lead the nation … we really lead the nation to the point that we are in a league all our own.
Number 2 on the foreclosure list is Florida, which receives one notice for every 178 homes.
When you are more than twice as bad as your next closest competitor, things have indeed gotten very dark.
A very large number of people that I personally know have left Las Vegs this year, and even more are contemplating doing so in the near future.
When you get off-strip and into the neighborhoods, the change in attitude is very noticeable. People don’t look happy. They are more surly and angry. The people here have never been particularly pleasant, but there is a palpable increase in the “fuck you” demeanor that is beginning to permeate this city.
In the working-class neighborhoods, anger and discontent grows with each passing month, and I am seeing more road rage and petty squabbles over things like parking spaces, shopping carts, and placement in lines.
For some reason, New York City always gets the stereotype of rude behavior, but those perceptions are misguided. As of right now, Las Vegas is without a doubt, the most rude city I have ever lived in.
And I didn’t move here from Iowa. I lived in inner-city Washington DC, New York City, and Los Angeles. None of these places are known for their overt friendliness.
Yet, they all seem like Mayberry when compared to the Las Vegas of today.
There is no doubt about it. This is a depressing time to live in Las Vegas.
The conditions the city currently finds itself in are due in no small part to what is happening to our tourist numbers.
Of course, it is not just individual homeowners and the working-class man that is suffering.
Entire constructions projects have been stalled, or scrapped completely.
Echelon Place
This September was particularly bleak. Compared to September of 2007, the LVCVA saw a visitor decrease of 10.1%
Keep in mind that fewer people came, in spite of room rates going down 21%.
I can’t prove it, but am inclined to think that these numbers are still on the bright side. Every time I take a cab, I ask the drivers what their opinions are. If anyone knows the pulse of the town, it’s the cabbies.
Almost across the board, they tell me that their fares are down between 20%-40% over this time last year. Some of this can be explained by an increase in cab fare, and an increase in cab drivers, but the road warriors of the city tend to think a 10% drop is conservative.
Suffice to say, everyone takes these numbers with a healthy grain of salt. I think the figures are mercilessly cooked, but they can be used to show an overall trend … and that trend is decidedly “down”.
While the September numbers look particularly bad, the numbers for 2008 as a whole do not look dire at all. According to the LVCVA, we have only had two and a half percent fewer visitors this year than last.
I’m not buying it, but that is their story and they are sticking to it.
How will City Center and the other massive projects compete in such a climate?
City Center
Frankly, I don’t know. It is a source of speculation and concern that reverberates throughout the town on a near-daily basis.
We’re in trouble. Just how much trouble remains to be seen.
Quite frankly, we need a bailout every bit as much as the finance industry and the auto industry.
I still have confidence that the players in the city can turn this thing around, but only if they come up with new and creative ways to distinguish Las Vegas from the rest of the world.
On most days, I still somewhat like this town. I want to see it succeed. On some levels, I need to see it succeed. I’m not trying to throw salt on the wound or add insult to injury. When things were good, I said they were good. I moved here 4 years ago and visited about ten times each year before that.
I very much want to see “that” Vegas happen again.
Will it?
I don’t know … but we definitely have some ground to make up.
As for the rest of the metrics, they aren’t much better than the visitor numbers, but they are not as bad as they could be.
If you are into crunching numbers, here is the data:
LVCVA Executive Summary (click to enlarge)
Written by thomas coe on November 20, 2008 at 5:25 am
thanks for the data at the end…i love looking at that crap! i wonder how city center is going to survive. it’s a multi BILLION dollar endeavor, yet there is nothing unique about that place except that it is new. vegas better survive. i just discovered vegas in march of 2007, my first trip, and i can’t imagine it not being around!