Speak of The Devil
November 11, 2009
Wow.
Break out the champagne.
Las Vegas Strip Crowd
No sooner did I send the last post over the ether, than the following news flashed across my screen:
“Figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority show an encouraging upswing in the number of visitors to the city for the month of September. Visitor volume increased four-point-three percent in the month. That’s the first year-over-year rise since May 2008. More than three-million people came to town in September, compared with two-point-nine-million in the same month last year. The month also showed promise in the convention category with attendance jumping 12-point-two percent.”
“Maybe that Rex guy isn’t so stupid after all.”
See, I knew you’d say it. I had faith.
This is the first metric to turn around, and I damn near called it to the specific month. I got a few emails after my last declaration begging to differ, and I respected and appreciated the dissent, but I stood by my opinion steadfastly.
Maybe it is possible to get a feel for a place just by being there damn near all the time.
I know, the more plausible explanation is that I just got lucky, but screw it, I feel vindicated anyway. You have to take what you can get in life.
Of course, this newsbite will not be lost on the corporate beancounters, marketers, and hype men who run and ruin the city. I don’t believe they’ve ever encountered a positive development that they couldn’t screw up and exploit.
If past performance is any indicator of future expectations, the major players along The Strip will use this little factoid as justification to pull a little more out of the customer by way of room rates, fees, etc.
“Haven’t you heard? Vegas is back! We don’t need your steeeeeeeeenking money Mr. And Mrs. Flyover. The calidouches will be back any minute and we’ve already booked Paris Hilton for the Welcome Back party!”
Then again, maybe not. We have the great regulator on the horizon … City Center … and that property is going to eat three large pizzas, drink a bottle of Milk of Magnesia, pull down its pants, and take a massive s**t in the pool of available rooms.
Las Vegas City Center
Las Vegas City Center
Las Vegas City Center
Aria alone will almost be a new MGM Grand, and will come in as the world’s 5th largest hotel (give or take a couple of ranking points).
The recent increase in visitors can be greatly offset by Aria alone, leaving places like the Sahara, Mandalay Bay, and Rio wondering where the new people are.
I do find it interesting that the 3% visitor increase came in the exact same month as did the 3% revenue decrease. I’m no mathematician, but I did once stay at a Holiday Inn Express … so I feel qualified to speak as one. After using several highly-specialized algorithms and submitting my hypotheses to NASA for verification, I’ve come to the conclusion that visitors are spending less. Rainman’s got nothing on me.
I don’t want to piss on the parade, though. After a billion months (or 17) of consecutive visitor declines … it’s a start.
Frankly, I had faith in Randy all along. I mean Mr. Snow. We’re not on a first name basis. Engage in sodomy with a guy one time and he never calls back. Instead, he breaks up with you in a goddamn blog comment.
The room rates are having their intended effect with regards to bringing people into the city, but they haven’t had their even greater intended effect of separating them with their money once they got to the casino floor.
If the town can resist the urge to look for ways to immediately capitalize on this trend, perhaps it can be built upon. If I was in charge, I may even be inclined to nudge the momentum by lowering the room rates even a little more than they are now, to keep things moving in the right direction.
It’s obvious that people still want to come to Las Vegas, they just don’t have much disposable income right now. Eventually, they might have more cash, so the time is ripe for building some loyalty and re-establishing Vegas as the value capital where the average guy can actually feel special instead of simply another piece of meat to be fleeced.
Anyway, good news for once. The visitor losing streak has finally been broken. I remain fairly convinced that revenue is trailing by only a couple of months, and now everyone (including me) can shut the hell up about the “turnaround”, and start figuring out what to do with it.
Written by tully on November 11, 2009 at 7:36 pm
For the sake of those who call Las Vegas home, I truly hope this is just the beginning of a healthy rebound. People need jobs, but only economic recovery will provide those.
For the sake of all these folks, really wish the people running the show did not have an amazing ability to shoot themselves in the foot—with an unloaded pistol. Hand these guys a beautiful birthday cake—and they drop it. Just an astonishing talent for screwing things up, and alienating the very tourists they say they want—the gamblers, with money to drop in the casinos..
Here’s hoping they’ve learned something the past two years—if we’re lucky, they won’t drop the cake.
Written by Andrew on November 11, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Hah, now I understand Mr. Snow’s comment to you Rex, and don’t hold your breath tully, if there’s anything that Las Vegas is good at it’s dropping the cake.
Written by Phouchg on November 11, 2009 at 7:58 pm
I am staying at Paris for 4 nights for CES COMPED. I think Aria is already messing with the supply/demand curve for room inventory in January.
Written by LizzieGirl on November 12, 2009 at 6:58 am
“It’s obvious that people still want to come to Las Vegas, they just don’t have much disposable income right now. Eventually, they might have more cash, so the time is ripe for building some loyalty and re-establishing Vegas as the value capital where the average guy can actually feel special instead of simply another piece of meat to be fleeced.”
Exactly.
Written by ColinFromLasVegas on November 12, 2009 at 8:09 am
Good news, I guess. The jury’s out though.
I also have reservations about the statistics. I think we’re being Snow’ed, oops, I mean, Mr. Snow’ed.
This upswing is a way to doctor the numbers to accentuate the positive, in my estimate.
And everyone knows that we are coming up traditionally on that time of the year between Thanksgiving and Christmas where it normally tends to be a total downswing of tourists coming to Las Vegas, perhaps the slowest time of the year. And this is understandable. Not anything to do with the economic downturn. It’s just that people spend more money on these holiday seasons, and coming to Las Vegas is not a big priority. Just the way it is. Las Vegas usually just tries to ride it out and hopes to make up for it on New Year’s Eve (and beyond).
You can actually see a lot of people getting ready for this slow time every year. Like Cirque du Soleil offering two for one tickets this month. They’re trying to pad the numbers to keep the shows rolling.
Another example that people are trying to just throw words out there that the economy in Las Vegas is getting better was just done by the real estate people. They say that real estate shows an improvement for the first time just recently. But when you dig through the numbers, they are basing that upon that the average cost of a home in Las Vegas went from $138,000.00 (around there) to now at about $139,000.00 (around there). Whoopee! We’re on a freakin’ roll now, ain’t we!!?!??! And that additional $1,000.00 won’t go anywhere to the actual property, it will probably just pad a realtors wallet and/or purse. Sounds more like a shell game more than anything else.
Also, Las Vegas usually tries to book conventions like crazy during these months too. But then, like Rex mentions, the opening of City Center in December will throw a monkey wrench in the gears for a lot of casinos. They’ll be fighting each other tooth and nail to get business.
I’m sorry, but I just don’t buy it. If you ask me, LVCVA is AGAIN spending way more time and effort trying to justify their existence. Way more time and effort than should be expended on ways to get tourists here. And some stupid ass new slogan ain’t gonna solve all the ills of Las Vegas. You can’t Snow me, oops, did it again, I mean, you can’t Mr. Snow me.
And, by the way, Mr. Snow, if you respond to my blog note, please refer to me as HMFWTHICBRI Colin. You can abbreviate it. That’s fine. Stands for Head Moh Foh What Thinks He’s In Charge But Really Isn’t.
Written by alberta on November 12, 2009 at 10:34 am
Can”t stop laughing! Rex”s blog is the best.
I read it before the local paper now.
Yup. Tourists are not gambling. Amazing how many I chat with that are just here for the shows (discounted tickets of course) window shopping and just to walk around and gawk at things.
Rex your piece on Mr. Snow was a classic! Keep it up!
Written by Joe on November 13, 2009 at 5:28 pm
I know we helped pad the September stats. Of course, our rooms were comped since we haven’t been out there in 20 months. Go figure.
But we did take a nice drive to Red Rock park and did a lot of sightseeing that we normally wouldn’t have done.
Oh, another thing. If the Monte Carlo offers you a comped room, watch out for that nasty resort fee of $10 a day. Needless to say, comped probably doesn’t mean the same thing to Advertising/PR people as it does to the average tourist.