Confessions of a Ten Splitter
October 30, 2008
I am going to make the mother of all gambling confessions.
Every now and then, I do the unthinkable.
I have been known to split 10’s against a dealer 5 or 6 when dabbling with rudimentary card counting.
If the count is in my favor, I might split them hoping for two winners against a dealer bust.
Sometimes I just feel like taking the risk if it is a $10 game, and I get the urge to go for a double.
Sure, go ahead and laugh, tell me I am an idiot, and post hateful comments … but you will simply be engaging in mental masturbation.
I looked online for the expected return for splitting 10’s.
Supposedly when the deck is neutral (i.e. there is no count), splitting tens versus a dealer six nets a +.57 per dollar yield, whereas standing nets +.70 per dollar over the long run.
That’s not a huge difference, and both plays are expected to be profitable the majority of the time.
If I want to gamble away a .13 edge for double the return, that’s my frigging right, and is completely consistent with *gasp* gambling.
Basic strategy does get boring after awhile.
The small difference outlined above also assumes a completely neutral deck.
If you have any kind of positive count, the difference becomes less and less.
Supposedly, if the deck is +10, the expected return from splitting tens is even greater than standing.
Yes, I know that in modern games it is nearly impossible to tell when the deck is that rich, but splitting tens is certainly not a horrible gamble. At least not much more of a gamble than playing blackjack in the first place.
I once lost 22 hands in a row playing “perfect strategy” at the Rio. My “correct” play did not save me. There is just no way to overcome the element of luck, and splitting tens is probably the “least bad” of all the bad plays.
If someone wants to gamble a tiny bit when the dealer shows 6 and he has two face cards, then why on earth is that considered a tragic play?
That’s why it’s called gambling, and their EV is still solidly positive.
That wouldn’t be a “walk and scream” situation for me.
Now that I have made the mother of all gambling confessions in public, I will also admit that I don’t do it often. I typically shy away from it because it creates too much commotion at the table, and the drama just irritates me. I’d rather just leave, than have to repeatedly explain “they are my goddamn cards” to the drunk asshole who is shouting at me. It ceases being fun when you have to explain your actions to other players.
I certainly don’t want to say “uh, the deck is rich”. That will get me booted and/or stared at by the pit boss. When I make the play, it seems that I always have to explain it to someone.
Therefore, when I play at the felt, 99% of the time, I play “correctly”.
However, when I play the video blackjack machines for .25/hand, I always split tens against Dealer 4-6. for a quarter, it’s just more fun.
The outcome? I don’t really see any difference. I know there is a statistical disadvantage to splitting tens, but it doesn’t appear to be overwhelming to me.
If I was playing $500 I would not do it because I would want the probable win off the top, but at lower limits, I can live with winning one hand and losing the other … which seems to be the usual “loss” on those hands for me.
But I rarely do it when playing with other people at a felt table. Antagonizing the table is not relaxing, and I don’t play blackjack for income. I’m just not that good, and I can’t count into the huge shoes, so blackjack is simply a recreational game for me.
Some plays, such as hitting 18, or hitting 12+ against a dealer 6 … may amuse me slightly because of the sheer stupidity, but I never say anything. I just roll my eyes and get a kick out of it.
I’m not sure what the big deal about splitting tens is, though.
Yes, it is a gamble, but not a sure loser like hitting 20, and not quite as obtuse as standing with 7-4.
I think it is a gamble that I should be allowed to take with my own money without too much commotion. It’s certainly no worse than re-raising 8-8 all-in when there are three overcards on the flop against a rock, but I see this happen all the time in local poker rooms.
Splitting tens can actually be an advantageous play, to the point that casinos often look for exactly this as a tell that someone is counting cards.
I looked at a couple of card counting websites, and they discuss how to split tens without drawing attention from the pit boss or the eye in the sky.
Do you think the house would give a damn if you hit 12 vs. a dealer 6? They’ll just point and laugh and probably never look at you again. However, if you split tens at higher limits, they will eyeball you to see if you are a “professional”. If the house thinks it is a “professional play”, then apparently they don’t think it is a bad play either.
Splitting Tens
Still, when you make this play at a full table, even casual players go apeshit over splitting tens and act like you just fucked their sister in the ass with a barbed-wire condom.
Why do they react in this manner?
Here is my theory:
People have simply been told repeatedly to “act outraged when someone splits tens!”
Since that is the reason they do most other things, they act accordingly. It’s a form groupthink and herd mentality to act outraged when someone splits tens and clears the table.
There is a slight mathematical disadvantage to standing on 16 against a dealer 10, but people do it all the time. I have never, ever seen standing on 16 clear a table once.
The paranoid conspiracy theorist in me thinks that the casinos started the whole “Go drama queen when someone splits 10’s” routine.
This way, the players do the job for the house when they act like a wailing siren as they discourage people from making the play … or at least draw attention to the person who may be counting cards.
Even with a neutral deck, it simply isn’t that horrendous of a play to warrant the reaction.
If you are supposed to double a ten vs. a dealer 6, there isn’t a whole shitload of a difference by splitting them (expending twice the money), except that you get an additional chance to tie the hand (win one hand, lose the other).
Again, in my opinion, most people who leave a table when someone splits tens probably have no idea why they are leaving other than it is what they are expected to do. If you were to ask the person leaving about the mathematical incorrectness of the play, and the richness of the deck … I pretty much guarantee that you will get a blank stare.
“I’m leaving because he’s leaving! We’re supposed to get upset.” will be the more likely answer.
Written by mad dog on November 3, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Rex, Rex, Rex.
Yes, you are not getting away with this blasphemy.
Did you not notice that while you were playing obviously at the Klondike (as evidenced by their distinct table
felt graphics in your photo), that they were dealing you used Tropicana cards!!!????
Were all the fives in the deck?
I expect better from the #1 blogger in the Milky Way Galaxy!!